Swim Like Michael Phelps

Rolf Dobelli tells the story of an individual, Pete, who resolved to amend his physique; he had acquired some extra weight and wasn’t too happy about it. For this reason he contemplated taking up various sports. Joggers appeared scrawny and unhappy, bodybuilders looked too broad and stupid; tennis was out of the question because he wasn’t interested in the upper-class social aspect of it. What did seem attractive to Pete were swimmers-they have streamlined bodies and a dominating figure. He decided to begin training several times a week to achieve his goal of this “swimmers look”.

After several weeks of training he realized that he had succumbed to an illusion. Pete realized professional swimmers do not have a desirable athletic “look” due to their swimming. Rather, athletic bodies allow them to be professional competitive swimmers. The bodies cause the swimming, not the swimming causing the bodies. How swimmer’s bodies are designed is a factor for selection and not the result of their swimming.

The above cognitive bias, referred to as “swimmers body illusion,” is constantly present in our everyday lives. Associations and patterns are frequently made with institutions, physique, and other forms of “success” where we fall victim to confusing selection factors with results. Correlation does not equal causation. Is an Ivy League school responsible for producing the brightest individuals in the nation? Or do they simply recruit the brightest individuals to attend? If the latter is the case then the statistic is a representation of the recruiting process and not the educational process that the students have undertaken.

I am increasingly skeptical of advice that is presented to me on how to be happier, more successful, stronger, or better looking, to name a few. The presenter of the advice has often manipulated the information in a biased way to be better tailored towards their personal situation, consciously or subconsciously. Of course the advice the individual is presenting worked for them, otherwise they would not be reiterating it. What needs to be kept in the front of the mind is that the unhappy do not write self-help books, the unsuccessful do not write books on success, the weak do not write books on strength and the unattractive don’t sell beauty products. There are many other factors in play that have an impact on outcomes. Very rarely are they driven by one visible catalyst; rather, many that go undetected.

These positive aforementioned characteristics can very well be attributed to some other, unknown factor. For the successful perhaps it was the environment that they were raised in, for the strong and good-looking genes play a big role in the results, and for the happy…well who knows where that comes from.

There is much that is seen and much that is unseen on the road towards goals and dreams. Expectations should and must be adjusted for uncontrollable random factors that are attributable towards results.

-Luke